By Bob Gwizdz

One of the world's foremost experts on tuberculosis says Michigan will not be able to eradicate the disease unless the state makes some significant changes in deer management.

"We are not going to see, at the current level of activity, eradication of the disease," said Graham Hickling, a professor at New Zealand's Lincoln University, who has been in Michigan studying TB in the deer herd.

The state will either have to cut the deer population in half or totally eliminate feeding in the TB zone to have a chance to eradicate the disease, Hickling said.

The herd has been cut by a third and deer feeding is down by 75 percent, according to Department of Natural Resources statistics. But there is still enough illegal feeding and deer populations are sufficiently dense to maintain the disease in the population, Hickling said.

"Low-key or short-term management doesn't get you anywhere," Hickling said.

Although Hickling said he thinks it is "encouraging" that the disease doesn't appear to be spreading, he's not sure that the steps necessary to eradicate the disease would be socially acceptable in Michigan.

Many hunters already believe the herd has been cut by more than a third and aren't likely to accept further reductions.

"(The hunters) have taken that herd down as far as they are going to take it," said Keith Charters, chairman of the Natural Resources Commission. "They have reached the bottom."

Charters was distressed to learn that a recent aerial survey by the DNR identified 75 illegal deer-feeding sites in the TB area.

"That's a situation we need to address and come down hard on." he said.

Although the NRC banned bait in any county with a deer that tested positive for TB, it allowed hunters to use a small amount of corn in the core TB area last fall as an experiment to see if that would help further reduce the herd. Results show that it did not.

In fact, the number of deer taken in the core area (in parts of Oscoda, Montmorency, Alcona and Alpena counties) fell last year.

"It would be very difficult to make a compelling argument to continue the experiment," Charters said.

That should please the agriculture community, said Rob Anderson of the Farm Bureau, who labeled the NRC's experimental bait regulations "a step backwards."

"In our opinion, the only real enforceable option is a total ban," Anderson said. "We know the hunting community has to be along with us."

In 2001, the DNR identified 59 deer in seven counties as well as a three-year-old bull elk as having had tuberculosis. That brings the total of infected animals to 397 deer, two elk and 30 others (coyote, bear, bobcat, opossum, raccoon and red fox) since 1994.

The prevalence rate for TB dropped this year for deer in the core area, from 2.5 percent in 2000 to 1.7 percent in 2001. But there is anecdotal evidence to suggest some hunters have stopped turning in suspicious animals, the DNR says.

"I would suggest we haven't had a dramatic drop," said DNR veterinarian Steve Stemmata. "But the prevalence rate has been relatively flat."